Chelsea's 2-2 Newcastle draw revealed a critical pattern: they dominate possession (53%) but lack clinical finality (1.04 xG) when opponents press aggressively. Villa's mid-block—proven against Arsenal—suffocates Chelsea's lateral passing and forces long-range shots, exactly where Villa excel defensively. The draw reflects an asymmetric matchup: Chelsea create quantity, Villa create quality. With Chelsea's squad rotation due to injuries and Mudryk's absence, clinical finishing diminishes further. Expect 1-1 or 0-0 scorelines with high possession (60%+) favoring Chelsea but no clinical conversion. Villa's 10-match unbeaten streak was built on exactly this game-state management. The market has priced Chelsea too short; draws are undervalued.

West Ham have not won at London Stadium in 10 months—a span covering 17 fixtures. While home advantage traditionally yields ~0.35 goal advantage in football, West Ham's institutional defensive collapse (3.0 GA per home match, last 5) has neutralized this entirely. Fulham's midfield press (Lukic-Berge pairing) disrupts West Ham's limited build-up play, while their away form (1.2 GF per match, 60% defensive retention rate) provides sufficient platform for a smash-and-grab victory through Jiménez's focal presence. Market odds (37%) drastically underweight the 5-table-place gap and structural defensive gulf; model assigns 51%+ probability.

Liverpool's unprecedented injury crisis—missing Salah, Isak, Szoboszlai, and five others—severely weakens their attacking fluidity. Wolves, despite bottom-table status, have kept games competitive against top sides (Arsenal 2-1, Brentford 2-3). At Anfield, Liverpool's recent home draws (Sunderland 1-1) and defensive lapses (conceded 9 in 8 home games) suggest vulnerability. With Wolves desperate for points and Liverpool's rotation-forced lineup lacking chemistry, a frustrating stalemate at 7.24 offers significant mathematical edge over the overpriced 1.25 favorite.

Juventus is clearly stronger, but the price overstates their dominance. Pisa’s underlying xG attack (≈1.05) against Juve’s rotated back line and away xGA profile supports around 0.8 home goals, while Juve projects around 1.7. That yields roughly a 17% Pisa win chance versus only 13% implied. With Juve managing injuries and a congested schedule and Pisa highly motivated in a relegation battle at home, the market leaves a rare, sizable pricing error on the home win.

Lazio is statistically fraudulent on the road (0.5 goals/game) and travels without Guendouzi, their midfield engine. Their possession is sterile (high xGA away). Udinese's 5-1 loss was a "red card anomaly"; at home, their 1.53 xG output is formidable. With Lazio missing key creators and Udinese desperate to bounce back at the Bluenergy, the price of 3.20 on the hosts is mathematically incorrect. We take the DNB insurance against the draw.