I’m backing Dortmund. This is mostly a situational spot for me. The official Bundesliga fixtures have Dortmund hosting Freiburg on Sunday 26 April, and the Bundesliga table has Dortmund second on 64 points while Freiburg are seventh on 43. On top of that, Reuters reports Freiburg just went through a draining extra-time cup semi-final loss on Thursday and now also have a Europa League semi-final to think about. I like Dortmund to be the fresher and more focused side in the moments that decide the match.

I’m backing Rublev. I do not love fading Kopriva on clay because ATP’s official bio literally lists clay as his favorite surface, so I’m keeping the stake controlled. But Madrid is not a slow, muddy clay stop, and that pulls the matchup more toward Rublev’s flatter weight of shot and his ability to rush opponents before they can fully settle into long clay patterns. The official order of play lists this match for today, and ATP’s win-loss page has Rublev at 15-8 in 2026. That is enough for me to side with the higher-end aggressor here.

I’m backing De Minaur, but with respect for Jodar. The official order of play lists De Minaur as the No. 5 seed against local wildcard Jodar, and ATP’s Madrid coverage says Jodar has had a real breakout stretch with a 14-7 tour-level record in 2026, including a Marrakech title and a Barcelona semi-final last week. That is exactly why I am not over-staking it. But I still trust De Minaur’s experience, elastic defense, and ability to turn a fast clay match into repeated uncomfortable extra-ball rallies more than I trust Jodar to keep red-lining for a full two sets against this level of opponent.

I’m backing Inter because they still look like the most stable Sunday football side on the board. Reuters says they are 12 points clear, have scored a league-best 78 goals, and could even clinch the title this weekend, while Torino’s improvement under Roberto D’Aversa still comes with a defense Reuters describes as unlikely to trouble this Inter side enough. I do not need this to be spectacular — I just need Inter to be the better, calmer team in the key moments, and I think they are.

I’m still leaning Oklahoma City, but I’m keeping the stake down because this one has real injury sensitivity. Reuters says OKC went up 2-0 after a 120-107 win, but also lost Jalen Williams to a hamstring injury, and Reuters later reported he is week-to-week. I still like OKC because their defensive floor and Shai’s shot creation are real series advantages, but Williams’ status stops this from becoming a bigger play.

I’m backing Barcelona, but with a smaller stake than I would have used if Yamal were fit. Barça’s official schedule shows the trip to Getafe on Saturday, the official LaLiga table has them top on 82 points with 85 goals scored, and Reuters reports that Lamine Yamal is out for the rest of the season. Even with that absence, I still trust Barcelona’s baseline level more than Getafe’s, but I’m respecting the away setting and the missing firepower by keeping it to medium confidence.

I’m backing Arsenal because this is a motivation and control spot I trust. Reuters says Arsenal are level with Manchester City on 70 points and have no margin for error in the title race, while Newcastle have dropped into the lower half of the table. I expect Arsenal to play this with urgency, but also with the kind of territorial control that usually matters at home in these run-in matches.

I’m backing Bayern because the table gap is simply too big to ignore. The official Bundesliga table has Bayern on 79 points with a 109:29 goal record, while Mainz sit 10th on 34 points. Reuters also noted recently that Bayern are still locked into a treble chase, so I do not see a team mentally switching off here. Even if they rotate a little, the gap in structure, shot volume and finishing power is still wide enough for me.

I’m keeping this as the only extra football add, and I’m taking the safer version. The official Ligue 1 match sheet has Lens second and Brest 12th, with season records of 20-2-7 for Lens and 10-7-12 for Brest. Ligue 1’s official site also shows Lens right in the title picture, while recent Brest club pages show more volatility in results. I’m not going bigger because it is an away game and Brest can make matches ugly at home, but I still trust Lens more to control territory, win the higher-value moments, and play with the sharper edge because they still have something major to chase.

I’m backing Mertens in a more controlled way. The WTA stats page has Mertens at 9-3 in 2026, with 73.9% service games won and 40.8% return games won, while Eala’s page shows her at 15-10 with a No. 44 ranking and 35.6% return games won. I respect Eala a lot because she is left-handed, she can redirect well, and she has enough feel to make matches awkward. But I still prefer Mertens because I trust her baseline discipline more in a WTA 1000 setting: she gives me a steadier serve pattern, better point selection, and fewer emotional dips if the first set gets messy.